Photo via @MapleLeafs on Twitter/X
By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
May 20, 2024
Mitch Marner is a Right Wing and Alternate Captain for the Tornoto Maple Leafs. Drafted 4th overall in 2015, he trails only Connor McDavid in scoring among players from that draft with 639 points in 576 career games. He also consistently receives Selke consideration as the league’s best defensive forward, being a top 3 finalist in 2022-23. Like Sebastian Aho, he is a star player in all situations. In fact, Hockey Reference gives Sebastian Aho the highest similarity score to Marner.
Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, the Maple Leafs took Marner with the 4th overall pick just before the Hurricanes were on the board at number 5, where they took Noah Hanifin. But now, 8 years later, it looks like the Canes have an opportunity to acquire the star forward. News out of Toronto is that Marner is unlikely to remain on the Leafs roster next season. Frank Seravalli believes there is a greater than 95% chance he is traded this summer. The Hurricanes must consider acquiring the player in his prime that is such an obvious fit for their system.
What Could a Trade for Marner Look Like?
Due to his $10.9 million cap hit, the Hurricanes would have to either send back substantial salary or burn about a third of their available salary cap this season. Considering the desire to retain players such as Guentzel, Jarvis, and Skjei, spending that much space on Marner without a reduction elsewhere doesn’t make much sense.
Looking at the large value contracts on the Hurricanes roster, the only one that makes sense to include in a trade is Dmitry Orlov. He has 1 year left at a $7.75 million cap hit. Additionally, the Maple Leafs could use a defenseman of his caliber on the roster. Orlov’s time with the Canes has been a mixed bag, and there are definitely better ways to use that salary.
Orlov alone won’t come close to landing Marner though. To balance out the trade, the Hurricanes would likely have to include Martin Necas. Throughout his time in Carolina, he has been a solid offensive contributor that at times looked out of place in Rod’s system. A system that prioritizes offense, such as is run in Toronto, could be an ideal fit for Necas.
Necas is 2 years younger than Marner, and has a longer window of team-control. Signing Necas to a long-term deal could make this deal quite attractive for the Leafs. Because of that, my mock trade includes a prospect coming back to the Hurricanes as well. There’s a few to choose from, but I included Nikita Grebyonkin, a 21-year-old Right Wing. Last season in the KHL, he scored 41 points in 67 games and just signed his ELC about a month ago. Perhaps another Russian on the roster could help entice Alexander Nikishin to make the jump next season.
This trade allows the Hurricanes to upgrade Necas to a player that is a better fit for the Hurricanes system. It also helps replenish the forward prospect pool that took a hit this past trade deadline. It does this in a way that maintains some cap flexibility to handle the remaining free agents.
How Would the Rest of the Roster be Impacted?
Making this trade addresses one of the three openings for top 6 wingers for next year, while creating a new hole at left defense. Let’s examine a set of roster moves that could make this work.
First, resigning our prized deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel. There is apparently a mutual desire to get a deal done, as Guentzel did say “I want to win more than anything and that’s all I care about.” We’ll see how true that is as contract negotiations continue. Let’s assume they can work out an 8 year deal, which would expire just before his 38th birthday. The table below will show what that contract structure could look like.
| Year | Salary |
| 2024-25 (Age 30) | $10,000,000 |
| 2025-26 (Age 31) | $10,000,000 |
| 2026-27 (Age 32) | $9,000,000 |
| 2027-28 (Age 33) | $9,000,000 |
| 2028-29 (Age 34) | $8,000,000 |
| 2029-30 (Age 35) | $6,000,000 |
| 2030-31 (Age 36) | $5,000,000 |
| 2031-32 (Age 37) | $5,000,000 |
| Cap Hit | $7,750,000 |
This contract ensures Guentzel gets paid ($38 million in the first 4 seasons) while also providing the Hurricanes with short term financial flexibility to remain competitive.
Next, to ensure continued veteran presence on the blueline, Brady Skjei would be brought back as well. Skjei really found his offensive capabilities under Rod Brind’Amour and resigning him would ensure the defense remains a strength. With Skjei, we could look at a 6 year deal, with him turning 36 during the final season.
| Year | Salary |
| 2024-25 (Age 31) | $7,500,000 |
| 2025-26 (Age 32) | $7,000,000 |
| 2026-27 (Age 33) | $6,500,000 |
| 2027-28 (Age 34) | $6,000,000 |
| 2028-29 (Age 35) | $5,000,000 |
| 2029-30 (Age 36) | $4,000,000 |
| Cap Hit | $6,000,000 |
The last of the big contracts must go to Seth Jarvis, who set career highs this season despite being hampered by injury. A star in the making, retaining as much team control as possible will be important. For that reason, I suggest a 3 year bridge deal that will 1) keep the cap hit lower and 2) retain RFA rights upon expiration. The final season of the deal will have a much higher salary. This will require a higher qualifying offer and show that we’re committed long-term despite offering a shorter term deal. He will be turning 25 during the final year of this contract.
| Year | Salary |
| 2024-25 (Age 23) | $3,000,000 |
| 2025-26 (Age 24) | $4,000,000 |
| 2026-27 (Age 25) | $8,000,000 |
| Cap Hit | $5,000,000 |
The last few extensions to round out the roster could go to Jack Drury (2 years, $2.5 million), Jalen Chatfield (4 years, $2.5 million), Jordan Martinook (3 years, $1.75 million), and Stefan Noesen (4 years, $2.75 million).
To make all the salaries work, Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s contract would have to be moved. A buyout is likely more possible than a trade, unless we want to send an additional asset to move it, and would save almost $4 million next year. We’ll get more into the details on the buyout in another post, but a Kotkaniemi buyout would cost $835k against the cap next season.
Additionally, a 3rd pair left handed defenseman would be needed to replace Orlov on the blueline. There are a few veterans out there that could fill the role for cheap, but for this exercise I’ve decided to bring back Joel Edmundson on a 1 year, $1.5 million contract.
After all these moves, here’s how the lines and financials could work out for next season.
Not to be lost in all this is who we lose. Regulars from this past season’s team that would not be with us anymore include Teravainen, Pesce, DeAngelo, and Raanta. But this will also provide opportunities to top prospects such as Felix Unger-Sorum and Scott Morrow.
Does This Make Us Better?
There’s a lot of good to acquiring a star player in their prime, especially one that obviously fits the system. The price of course is high, both in assets traded and the opportunity cost. Looking through these lines, is this proposed team better, or at least as good, as what we had last year?
The forward corps to me looks better than what we had last season. Kuznetsov or Drury, however they line up, will be a stronger 2C than Kotkaniemi. Top 6 wingers of Guentzel, Jarvis, Svechnikov, and Marner will be the envy of the league. So long as the Staal line doesn’t lose a step with age, they’re consistently among the best forechecking and possession lines in the NHL. Felix Unger-Sorum almost made the team out of camp last year and will have a great opportunity to do so again. If not him, Bradley Nadeau or Jackson Blake could be ready, or Brendan Lemieux could have a more full-time role.
On the backend, this defensive corps leaves a little to be desired. Chatfield is a capable 2nd pair defenseman, but a slight step down from Pesce. Edmundson fits the 3rd pair role better than Orlov did, but is also a clear downgrade. Scott Morrow will really need to show he can step up or lose the role to Coghlan or someone else. It is, however, important to retain some flexibility on the blueline following next season. Both Burns and Slavin are on expiring contracts, and Alexander Nikishin will be free to make the jump to North America. Ensuring a long-term spot for Slavin, Skjei, and Nikishin on the left side is crucial, while Chatfield and Morrow are a solid core to build the right side around.
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