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By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
May 23, 2024
On March 7, 2024, the Hurricanes made the biggest deal of the trade deadline. Jake Guentzel, along with Ty Smith, was acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Michael Bunting, prospects Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, and Ville Koivunen, and a 2024 2nd round pick. The Hurricanes offense had struggled in prior playoff runs, and Guentzel is the solution. With the Penguins, he had 58 points in 58 career playoff games, and helped them win the Stanley Cup in 2017.
Though this year’s playoff run ended in disappointment, he added 9 points in 11 games with the Hurricanes and could now test free agency for the first time in his career. For the Hurricanes, it is crucial that they lock down an extension before that happens.
Offensive Machine
Jake Guentzel was drafted in the 3rd round, 77th overall, in the 2013 entry draft (11 picks after Brett Pesce). He was coming off a 73 point season with Sioux City of the USHL and committed to playing college hockey at University of Nebraska-Omaha. He played 3 seasons in college, scoring 119 points in 108 games. The following season he split time between the AHL and NHL, scoring 33 points in 40 games for the Penguins. In the playoffs is where he really excelled, scoring 21 points in 25 games and winning the Stanley Cup as a rookie.
Over the next 6+ seasons, he emerged as an elite offensive player, scoring 466 points in 503 games for Pittsburgh. This season, coming off 4 straight first round exits and likely missing the playoffs for a second year, the Penguins decided to make Guentzel available. The Hurricanes weren’t the only suitor, but were certainly the most motivated. After the trade, Guentzel scored 25 points in 17 games with the Hurricanes and got to experience playoff hockey yet again. He tied for 3rd on the team in playoff scoring with 9 points in 11 games.
The Hurricanes have long needed a truly offensive forward, and they found him this year in Jake Guentzel. He’s shown that he is that difference maker and defeated the notion that he can only score on Crosby’s line.
The Hurricanes Way
The Hurricanes play style is much more defensive oriented than most teams. One concern with bringing in Guentzel was whether he would fit that style. That’s why former Hurricane Jeff Skinner was shipped out, after all.
But Guentzel came in with a solid work ethic and showed that he’s more than just a scoring machine. Often matched up with Sebastian Aho, the two forwards helped each other succeed offensively while also covering for each other defensively. In the 2 months Guentzel played in Raleigh he showed that he could be a perfect fit for Brind’Amour’s team.
At What Cost?
Top wingers aren’t cheap. There are currently 5 wingers making greater than $10 million per season, and 10 more over $9 million. It’s tough to imagine a situation where Guentzel doesn’t join that list. While all but 1 of the wingers making over $10 million scored at a higher rate than Guentzel this season, only 3 of those making over $9 million did so. For that reason, a cap hit of around $9.5 million could be a reasonable market value.
A cap hit that high would be difficult, but not impossible, for the Hurricanes to absorb. Additionally, they could leverage contract clauses and structures to their benefit to entice him to accept a lower annual value. A full “No Movement Clause” and pay primarily in the form of signing bonuses could help bring the cost lower. Additionally, larger annual pay up front and decreasing amounts at the back end could help drop the average while still ensuring he gets paid. Below is an example of how this could work:
| Year | Clause | Signing Bonus | Salary | Total Earnings | Cap Hit |
| 2024-25 | NMC | $11,500,000 | $1,000,000 | $12,500,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2025-26 | NMC | $11,500,000 | $1,000,000 | $12,500,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2026-27 | NMC | $10,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2027-28 | NMC | $10,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2028-29 | NMC | $7,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2029-30 | NMC | $5,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2030-31 | NMC | $4,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2031-32 | NMC | $3,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
| Totals: | $62,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $70,000,000 | $8,750,000 |
While this may be a longshot considering he will absolutely have larger offers on the open market (though at a max of 7 years), he *did* say he wants to win more than anything and that this team can for sure win a Stanley Cup…
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance?
While there will be plenty of offers for Guentzel on the open market, GMDW feels there’s a mutual desire to get something done here.
Guentzel has shown he can be the offensive difference maker the Hurricanes need. He’s shown he can do it without negatively impacting the team’s defensive structure. We’ve shown him how great it is to play in Raleigh. It’s time to make the big summer splash we’ve all been waiting for and lock him up long term.
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