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By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
July 25, 2025
With one season left on his entry-level contract, Jackson Blake just signed an 8-year, $45 million extension with the Hurricanes. The new deal locks him in through the 2033-34 season. While some may consider signing a long-term, high dollar value contract to a rookie to be risky, the bigger risk would have been waiting.
Why Timing Was Everything
Like Logan Stankoven before him, Jackson Blake’s extension was signed with one year still remaining on his Entry Level Contract (ELC). Typically both teams and players prefer to wait until the expiry of the ELC before signing an extension. That way, both parties maximize information about that player’s development at the time of the contract. However, next summer the NHL and NHLPA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) takes effect, and there are some notable changes impacting contracts.
First, the new CBA caps contract extension terms to just 7 years instead the 8 years currently allowed. By handling this extension now, the Canes are able to lock in Jackson Blake until his age 30 season. Additionally, the longer term allows the total value of the contract to be spread over an additional year. A $45 million contract over 7 years would have an Average Annual Value (AAV) of roughly $6.43 million. With the 8th year, the Canes were able to keep the AAV down to just $5.625 million.
Second, the new CBA eliminates deferred salary contracts. More common in the MLB, most notably with the Dodger’s signing of Shohei Ohtani, deferred salary contracts have recently made their way into the NHL. While they had always been allowed, no teams really took advantage of them until last summer. That’s when the Canes and Eric Tulsky handed out 2, in extensions with Jaccob Slavin and Seth Jarvis. While we are still awaiting final details, Elliotte Friedman reports that due to deferred salary, the actual Cap Hit of this contract will be closer to $5.1 million. This provides cap savings of over $500k per season, or $4 million over the contract term. This provides even more flexibility for the Canes throughout the term of this deal, allowing them flexibility to build depth around their talented core.
Well Worth the Money
Jackson Blake just completed his rookie season, playing in 80 games and scoring 34 points (17 goals, 17 assists). While he averaged just under 14 minutes TOI per game over the whole season, by February and beyond he averaged over 16:30. In his expanded role, he scored 6 goals and 10 assists in the team’s final 28 games. He also had a +9 rating during this time, despite playing heavy minutes against other team’s top lines. In the playoffs, though he scored just 6 points in 15 games, his 17 hits and 2 power play goals showed he has a solid foundation to build upon in the future.
The value of this contract heavily favors the Canes as well. AFP Analytics projected a 7-year, $50 million extension for Blake, and AAV of over $7.1 million. Their comparisons include Nikolaj Ehlers, Quinton Byfield, Matt Coronato, Travis Konecny, and Alex Tuch. By keeping the cap hit down to about 5.34%, the closest actual comparison is Christian Dvorak. He signed a 6-year, $4.45 million deal with the Arizona Coyotes back in 2018, also with a year left on his ELC.
Compared to recently expired ELC’s of Canes players, the closest comparisons are Logan Stankoven and Seth Jarvis. Stankoven is the closest comp, both in age and career status at the time of extension. Both are coming off their rookie season with a year remaining on their ELC. Stankoven, however, played well over 20 games the year before, and has already eclipsed 100 in his career (vs. 81 career games for Blake). Stankoven also has slightly better production and the benefit of having experience at center, so the higher AAV for him makes sense. Jarvis had a better rookie season at a younger age, and he also signed his extension after playing 3 seasons in the NHL, so again the higher AAV makes sense. This season, Blake tied Seth Jarvis for 5th place in franchise history for goals as a rookie.
Looking Ahead: Developing a Core Piece
With this signing, the Hurricanes now have 12 skaters, 9 forwards, signed through at least 2029. This long term stability creates an excellent foundation on which the Canes can build repeated cup-contending teams. With major increases to the salary cap already determined for the next 3 seasons, by the 2028-29 season the Canes could have between $44 – $50 million in cap space with only 8 roster spots not yet filled. With players like Ehlers, Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Blake, and Stankoven locked in for that long, filling out the rest of the roster becomes much easier.
For Blake in particular, continuing to build on his foundation established last year will be one of the key focuses for the team this season. Blake looked his best when playing with Aho and Jarvis. The trio played almost 200 minutes together across 20 games. While together, they managed a Corsi For % (CF%) of over 64% and outscored their opponents 13-5. They also produced 57 high danger scoring chances together while only allowing 27 against. Together, this line controlled where the game was played, generated far more chances than their opponents, and cashed in on those chances with regularity.
Given the current roster, however, I think the most likely line for Blake this season will be with Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. They only played together for about 5:30 in 1 game last season, but they meshed well. They doubled up their opponents in shot attempts during that game (6-3), lead 3-1 in scoring chances, and generated a high danger scoring chance without allowing one. This line brings together the right mix of players, with Kotkaniemi being skilled at opening the ice for his linemates, Svechnikov being a powerful skater with an excellent shot, and Blake who likes to find his way to the front of the net. This line would be a solid follow-up to a top line featuring the high end skill of Ehlers, Aho, and Jarvis.
Final Word
Jackson Blake’s 8-year, $45 million extension is not only well deserved, but well timed too. The team’s foresight and aggressive nature allowed them to lock in a player who has barely scratched the surface of what he can do in the league. With stricter contract rules coming soon, the timing of this deal is perfect. The Canes beat the clock on the new CBA, locked down a core asset at an affordable rate, and gave themselves flexibility to build around their core.
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