Photo via @Canes on Twitter/X
By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
October 15, 2024
While not all bad, game 1 left a lot to be desired. The Hurricanes have the opportunity to right the ship tonight as they welcome the New Jersey Devils to town. Puck drop is at 7pm.
Last Time Out
The Hurricanes opened the 2024-25 season on Friday night with a 4-1 loss vs. the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning. Though there were positives, the Hurricanes had struggles in all areas of the game.
The most glaring issue was on special teams, with an 0/4 powerplay and a 2/4 penalty kill. The Canes were among the league’s best last season in both situations, but some key departures during free agency led to some changes in the special teams lineups.
One bright spot was goaltending, where Freddie Andersen had a .905 SV% and 2.06 GAA. Per Natural Stat Trick, he had 0.31 saves above expected in just over 58 minutes of ice time. That’s 0.32 SAx per 60 minutes, which is well above last year’s average for goalies with 10+ starts (would have ranked 15th out of 73 qualified goalies). Additionally, Andersen was second to only Justus Annunen of Colorado in this stat last season, with a SAx/60 of 0.88. Rumors of his decline have been greatly exaggerated.
On the Other Side
The Devils have already played 5 games this season, with a 4-1-0 record (8 points, 1st in the NHL). They handed the Utah Hockey Club their first loss of the season yesterday in a 3-0 win. Stefan Noesen leads the team in points with 6 points in 5 games.
Jake Allen got the start for the Devils in Monday’s game, meaning it’s likely Jacob Markstrom gets the start against the Canes. Markstrom is 2-1 this season with a .906 SV% and 2.71 GAA.
In addition to Stefan Noesen, former Hurricane Brett Pesce is a new addition to the Devils this season. However, his ankle is still injured and he’s unlikely to play tonight.
The Matchup
These aren’t the New Jersey Devils of the 2000s. A team historically known for stifling play and low offensive output has transformed into one full of speed and dynamic offense.
That said, their top line of Tatar, Hischier, and Mercer is the only one that really drives play with a Corsi For greater than 50%. Their finish has been sub-optimal thus far, with just a single goal compared to a 1.51 xGF. While obviously a small sample size, it will be a trend to watch. I like matching up the Aho line against this line, as I feel they have the defensive skill to prevent them from scoring while also having the offensive skill to drive Corsi For in our favor and convert on chances.
Another matchup to watch will be the 3rd line. For New Jersey, this is the line that has had the most 5 on 5 offense. Newcomers Paul Cotter and Stefan Noesen line up with Erik Haula in the middle. While their Corsi For has been abysmal at just under 36%, their shooting percentage has been overperforming at 30%. I expect the much more physical and controlling Staal line with Martinook and Carrier to drive play here, prevent any goals against, and pot one of their own.
Lining Them Up
Based on practices Sunday and Monday, as well as today’s morning skate, we’re not expecting any changes to the lines for tonight’s game. As a reminder, the lines last game were as follows:
Svechnikov – Aho – Jarvis
Roslovic – Kotkaniemi – Necas
Martinook – Staal – Carrier
Robinson – Drury – Blake
Slavin – Burns
Gostisbehere – Walker
Orlov – Chatfield
Though Coach Brind’Amour has confirmed that he will not name a starting goalie to the media this season, Kochetkov lined up in the net that is closer to the team’s bench for morning skate, which likely indicates he is the starter for tonight’s game. If so, it will be Kochetkov’s first start of the season. Kochetkov started 40 games last season, with a 23-13-4 record. He boasted a .911 SV% and 2.33 GAA, both career bests. He was named to the NHL All Rookie Team and came in 4th in Calder Trophy voting (rookie of the year).
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