Photo via @Canes on Twitter/X
By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
October 31, 2024
Finally home from the longest road trip they’ll take this season, the Carolina Hurricanes welcome the Boston Bruins to town for a Halloween showdown. Let’s see if they can treat their fans to a victory tonight!
Last Time Out
The Canes wrapped up their longest road trip of the season on Monday night with a 4-3 overtime win over the Vancouver Canucks. After building a 3-1 lead by the early 2nd period, the Hurricanes struggled to drive possession the rest of the game. Eventually they broke in the 3rd period as the Canucks were able to tie the game and send it to overtime. It fortunately didn’t take long for Aho to once again score the overtime winner.
The Hurricanes 5 game powerplay goal streak was broken that night, and generated fewer expected goals than during the streak. This was driven by Vancouver’s penalty kill being top 10 in the league. There was also likely some road fatigue at the tail end of the trip. Some regression to the mean is expected, especially from the top unit that scored 6 goals vs. xGoals of 3.48 on the trip. The second unit will likely get more time on the man advantage as the first cools off. That unit failed to score on the trip, with an xGoals of 1.1.
Goaltending was great for the first 2 periods against Vancouver. Kochetkov allowed a single goal against an xGoals of 1.46 for the Canucks. However, he tried to do too much in the 3rd, especially on the game tying goal. He ended the game with a Saves Above Expected of -0.47, an unfortunate ending to an excellent start.
On the Other Side
The Bruins come to town 1-3-1 in their last 5, including 2 shutout losses. Their 1 win in that time was in overtime against the Maple Leafs. They rank 25th in the league in goals per game, and 26th in powerplay percentage. Their possession metrics are weak as well, with a 5 on 5 CF% of 48%.
Though they haven’t been performing well, this is still a team with Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman. It takes just a single good game to turn things around. The Canes have to play to their strengths to avoid being that team that the Bruins have a good game against. Strong possession metrics and net positive special teams will be the keys tonight.
Lining Them Up
The Canes made some line adjustments in the game against Edmonton, and those changes helped to spark the comeback. Since then, Rod Brind’Amour has continued to use those combinations, and I expect no change tonight.
Svechnikov – Aho – Roslovic
Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Necas
Martinook – Staal – Jarvis
Carrier – Drury – Blake
Slavin – Burns
Gostisbehere – Walker
Orlov – Chatfield
Though Brind’Amour will not name a starter, there is no doubt we will see Kochetkov between the pipes tonight. With Andersen sidelined week-to-week with a lower-body injury, we’ll see if Kochetkov can string together a few quality starts. He played well until the 3rd period of his last start in Vancouver, while the start before that in Calgary was very good. Hopefully the Kochetkov we saw in Calgary is in net tonight.
The Matchup
The Bruins have tried several different line combinations this season, only 1 of which (their 4th) has played together in all 10 games. Based on the combinations used in their last game, I’ll predict the matchups we might see tonight.
I expect the Aho line to be matched up against the Bruins line of Zacha – Lindholm – Pastrnak tonight. This line has some star power on it, but is struggling to generate much offensively. The Aho line is strong enough defensively to handle this line while also being powerful enough offensively to take advantage of it.
The Staal line, therefore, would likely face off against the Marchand – Coyle – Brazeau line. This line has been put together more recently, but has faired very well, with a 61.9 CF% and 2.75 xG/60. The Staal line is strong on the forecheck, and forces opponents to play in their own defensive zone. Keeping the strongest offensive line of the Bruins in their own end will greatly limit their scoring opportunities.
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