How To Approach the Off-Season If Guentzel Walks

Photo via @Canes on Twitter/X

By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
June 3, 2024

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This morning, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported that Hurricanes trade deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel will likely test free agency. While this doesn’t necessarily mean he will not be back in Raleigh, it will impact the Canes retention strategy. First, he is only eligible to sign an 8 year extension if he signs prior to July 1. After that date the max term in 7 years, even if he returns to the Hurricanes. Second, it is unlikely the Hurricanes will be able to match the dollars offered by other teams, so in the meantime they’ll need to highlight the competitiveness and desirability of the team and the city. That might not even be enough, despite Guentzel’s claim that he only cares about winning.

What Would It Take to Keep Guentzel?

Taking a step back for a moment, let’s take a look at what it would likely cost to retain Guentzel. If he can be resigned ahead of July 1, he would be eligible to sign an 8 year extension. A contract of that length would secure him the most guaranteed money over the life of the contract and help keep the cap hit lower. A contract of this length would likely cost around $70 million, or about $8.5-$9 million cap hit.

A shorter contract of 7 years would likely cost more per year, as the salary of that 8th season would likely be lower than average. Without that extra low paying year to reduce the average, it’s likely a 7 year contract would have a total value of around $65 million, or about a $9-$9.5 million cap hit.

While Guentzel has shown he is a good fit for the Hurricanes system (you can read our thoughts on that here), interim GM Eric Tulsky may not feel it’s the best use of limited cap space. With so many pending UFAs, including Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, Teravainen, Martinook, and Noesen, and RFAs Jarvis, Drury, and Necas, the money might be better spent elsewhere.

Building Out Next Year’s Roster

Depending on where prospects such as Nadeau, Blake, and Morrow start the season, the Hurricanes roster currently has 9 open spots and over $31 million to work with. Three openings on defense and six among the forwards. There are a few iterations of this based on player prioritization, but I’ve elected to proceed with the following assumptions:

• Retaining our defensive personnel is a key priority
• Sign Jarvis to a max term extension rather than a bridge
• Trade Necas rather than resign
• Acquire a right-handed center
• Kotkaniemi is on the outside looking in

Our Defense Is Our Strength

Our free agents on the blueline include Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, and DeAngelo (plus others that didn’t get any NHL time). DeAngelo is one that I will skip until the end, as he’s no more than a 7th for us.

Starting with Skjei, I see us retaining him for 6 years and around $6 million. I go further in depth on this contract in a previous piece if you want to read more on my rationale.

Last off-season, Pesce turned down a 5 year, $25 million extension, hoping to get something larger after this year. Unfortunately for him, he had 13 points in 70 games and got hurt in game 2 of the playoffs. As a right handed defenseman, his value is a little higher, but he’s unlikely to get the same offer this year. Given his age (turns 30 in November), I could see a 6 year deal to match the length of Skjei’s. For value, something around $4.5 per season at that term could be enough to retain his services.

Lastly, Jalen Chatfield is an interesting case. This year was the best of his career, both statistically and financially. Career high 8 goals, career high 22 points, and second straight year of an established NHLer. Looking beyond 2024-25, he could legitimately be a top 4 defenseman for the Hurricanes. I believe committing to him long-term makes a lot of sense. Lock him down at a reasonable rate and receive excellent value from his contract for years to come. If structured correctly, an 8 year, $3.5 million per year contract could be great for both sides.

RFA Forwards

The first obvious move among the forwards is lock in Jarvis to a max-term extension. He is coming off a career year in which he scored 33 goals and added 34 assists for 67 points in 81 games. He followed that up by leading the team in postseason goal scoring, with 5 goals and 4 assists in 11 playoff games. We found out after the second round elimination that he did all that will a torn labrum and rotator cuff, sustained back in November. A max term extension here is good for both sides, locking him in for the next 8 years in a Canes sweater and getting him a huge payday cashing in on his career year.

The obvious comparison here is Andrei Svechnikov coming off his ELC back in 2021. He signed an 8 year extension worth $7.75 million per season. At the time, it was just over 9.5% of the salary cap. His per game metrics however were better than Jarvis’s over the first 3 years, though his best year was year 2. Based on this, an 8 year deal worth $7.5 million per season makes a lot of sense for Jarvis.

From here, the only remaining RFA forward to lock up is Jack Drury. He performed well in a full time NHL role and passed Kotkaniemi on the depth chart. I don’t think a long-term deal here makes sense for either side. A 3 year, $2.25 million per year is a nice bridge deal for him.

UFA Forwards

For UFAs, we have Martinook, Noesen, and Teravainen. For starters, retaining Martinook is a no-brainer. A 3 year deal that lines up with Jordan Staal’s makes sense here, and would likely cost around $1.5 million. Stefan Noesen would be nice to retain, but may generate more interest in free agency than we could match. I’ve decided to retain him in this scenario at 5 years, $3.875 million.

Teravainen is a tough case. He’s one of the longest tenured players on the team and a rightful fan favorite. However, based on other team needs, it’s hard to imagine a situation where he is in a Canes sweater next season. For that reason, I’ve decided not to resign him in this scenario.

After handling internal free agents, we still have 3 open roster spots and just over $2.5 million in cap space to fill them. While those spots could be filled with Lemieux, Kotkaniemi, and prospects, a better option is to look to trades and free agency.

Trades and Free Agency

The biggest free agent we haven’t handled yet is Martin Necas. Also mentioned by Pagnotta this morning, he is on the radar of over a dozen teams, including Calgary, Nashville, Seattle, Philadelphia, Montreal, and Vancouver. Though he’s an excellent player, his style isn’t a great match for Rod Brind’Amour’s system. A trade is likely the best scenario for both Necas and the Canes.

For this scenario, let’s imagine a trade with Calgary. The Canes are reportedly interested in roster players in their return rather than picks or prospects. This is consistent with the way the Canes have approached trades over recent years and considering their status as a contender. From Calgary, one player that makes a lot of sense is Yegor Sharangovich. They acquired him from New Jersey in exchange for Tyler Toffoli last off-season, and he played well for them, scoring 31 goals and 59 points in 82 games. Necas is slightly younger and is otherwise an improvement for Calgary up front. Adding in their 2024 3rd round pick evens the trade up a bit and helps out both teams.

Now over the cap, Kotkaniemi is the next to address. While I still firmly believe that he has strong potential, we don’t have the time or cap space available to wait for him to reach it. Rumor has it Vancouver was interested in him, so we’ll send him there for a 6th round pick.

With just 2 spots left, it’s time to look at the available free agents. There aren’t a ton of good ones for cheap, but one that could be worth a look is Danton Heinen. Playing for Boston on a league minimum deal, he scored 36 points in 74 games this season. He’s a guy that could slot in nicely on the 3rd line and do what we need him to do.

Finishing Touches

The final roster spot could be filled either by Brendan Lemieux or one of our forward prospects likely to make the jump out of camp. Below are the trades and signings that took place in this scenario:

Additionally, below is the financial picture and an idea of how the lines might look with this roster:

What Do We Think?

Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this roster. The middle 6 is weak and the defense, while the same as last year, is much more expensive. As much as I’d miss him, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to bring Pesce back. I’d opt to play Chatfield and Morrow, or look for a cheaper 3rd pair defenseman. Additionally, the Orlov contract is a bit restrictive considering what he brings to the team. If he could be included in a Necas trade to save some cap space and improve the return, that should be considered.

Up front, I’d love to retain Noesen, but it may be tough to keep him at a reasonable price. A lot is going to be impacted by how we handle the defense and what number Jarvis ends up at.

What do you all think? Comment here or on our socials, and if there’s a scenario you’d like us to review, let us know!

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