“You need this type of experience moving on, so you can lean on these types of moments”
By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
March 17, 2024
Toronto – The Maple Leafs third breakaway goal was a heart breaker. A team with their level of offensive skill getting that performance from their goaltender will win almost every time. Key word is “almost.” After that third goal, Rod Brind’Amour shuffled his lines, flipping Fast/Jarvis and Guentzel/Svechnikov and was rewarded immediately. Jordan Martinook scored just 94 seconds later to cut the lead to 2. With just 2.8 seconds left in the 2nd, Seth Jarvis found the back of the net on the power play to get the Canes within 1.
Despite being down a goal, the game felt winnable in the second intermission. Then less than 3 minutes into the 3rd, David Kampf scores on yet another breakaway to extend the lead back to 2. The Leafs then had an incredible power play opportunity off a Jordan Martinook was called for high-sticking. The Maple Leafs generated 1.014 expected goals on this power play, over 17% of their expected goals for the game. But the Canes penalty kill stood strong, keeping their hopes for the game alive.
It Comes Down to This
For the next 10 minutes or so, the game was fairly even, with Toronto defending well against the Canes push. Then, with 3 minutes to go in the game, David Kampf is called for a hooking penalty. With the goalie pulled, the Canes went on a 6-on-4 advantage and went to work. With 92 seconds left in the game, Orlov finds Aho on the back door for the team’s second power play goal of the night.
But one goal isn’t going to be enough. With the goalie pulled once again, the Canes worked the puck around and, in his 1400th career game, Brent Burns shoots the puck looking for a tip and finds Aho’s stick for a perfect deflection with 5.8 seconds left. Once down 3-0, the Canes are now heading to overtime.
Aided by a power play opportunity, the Leafs dominated offensively, generating 1.231 expected goals in overtime, about 21% of their total expected goals. Once again the Canes penalty kill was up to the task, lead by Slavin and Kochetkov.
Still tied after the overtime period, the game would proceed to a shootout. After the first five shooters were stopped, a Jake Guentzel pump fake got Samsonov to bite, and Guentzel beat him backhand to the five hole. The improbable comeback was complete.
Key Takeaways
Unsurprisingly, the offenses of each team lead the way in the 5-4 game. Per Moneypuck.com, the Maple Leafs lead expected goals 5.84 to 5.49. However, when limited to just 5-on-5 play (excluding powerplays, pulled goalie, and overtime), expected goals shifts to Carolina’s favor 3.41 to 1.55. Even more interesting is that all 4 of Toronto’s goals came at 5-on-5, while Carolina only had 1 such goal (2 on powerplays, 1 with the goalie pulled).
The Hurricanes have had a tough time in the shootout this season, going 1-4 heading into this game. Toronto, however, entered with a 5-1 record in shootouts. Trailing the Rangers by 5 points in the standings, getting the extra point was critical to keep the pressure on them down the stretch. Brind’Amour made a wise decision getting away from the typical cast of shooters that have struggled this season, turning first to Kuznetsov. Back in December, Kuznetsov scored in the shootout for Washington, handing Carolina one of their 4 shootout losses. While he didn’t score, the other trade deadline acquisition, Jake Guentzel, did.
Kuznetsov and Necas looked excellent together with both Guentzel and Svechnikov as the other winger. With Svechnikov, the group had almost 5 minutes of ice time together, and allowed 0 shot attempts from Toronto. I would like to see more of this line together, with Guentzel playing with Aho and Jarvis or Teravainen. Kuznetsov in particular was an analytics darling, with a 94.6% xGF%, 87.5% Corsi%, and a 85.7% Fenwick%. Basically, when he was on the ice, the Hurricanes were on offense. Lots of shot attempts, suppressing Toronto’s chances, and getting quality looks of their own. Look to his line, especially when with Necas and Svechnikov, to drive play and provide quality chances.
What They Said
Rod Brind’Amour – “We had some good individual efforts, for sure. We gave them four goals. Giving up breakaways like that is not typical of the way we do it. I give the guys credit. They dug in and had a good finish, obviously. (It wasn’t) the best way to do it, but overall, we’ll take the points, that’s for sure. Great penalty kill. I think that was really the key for us.”
Sebastian Aho – “Early in the second was not the best moment for us. They’re a very highly-skilled team and they make you pay. Some of them are nice plays, but we can’t give them three breakaways. After that, Roddy pulled us together and Jordo’s line went out after that. They had a big shift and took momentum for us. I don’t think we looked back after that. We shuffled the lines a little bit and I know that sometimes that will give us a little spark. As a player, you think you have to be a little better if your coach is shuffling the lines. It was a great response from us. You need this type of experience moving on, so you can lean on these type of moments.”
Coming Up Next
No rest for the weary, as the Canes are back in action tonight at 6pm in Canada’s capital looking for a season sweep of the Ottawa Senators. Currently second to last in the eastern conference, the Senators sold one of their biggest assets at the deadline in Vladimir Tarasenko. This team still has a lot of talent, with Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Claude Giroux leading the way up front. This game could be a good opportunity to reset and refocus on doing the right things.
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