Photo via @Canes on Twitter/X
By Spencer Knight – @stormsurge_pod / stormsurgepod.com
October 29, 2024
Author’s note: I’ll be recapping the entire road trip in this piece, but going forward I’ll be providing individual previews and reviews of each game. Like the team, I was away from home for much of the road trip without access to write articles, but that shouldn’t be a problem anymore.
The Carolina Hurricanes completed their longest road trip of the season last night with a 4-3 overtime win versus the Vancouver Canucks. This victory marked the first time in team history that the Canes swept their trip to Western Canada, after defeating Calgary and Edmonton last week. They also earned a record of 5-1 on the road trip, a resounding success this early in the season. Their success hinged on three main points: stellar special teams, dominating possession, and incredible goaltending.
Powerful Power Play
After starting 0/5 on the power play through the first two games of the season, the Canes sorted out their man advantage in Pittsburgh. The Canes went 2/4, both from the same unit, and kicked off a 5-game powerplay goal streak. The power play was 6/21 (28.6%) on the road trip and now sits at 23.1% on the season.
Additionally, all of the power play scoring has been from the top unit of Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov, Necas, and Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere leads the team with 3 power play goals, and Necas has the power play points lead with 5.
Advanced analytics suggest that the Canes power play on this trip is overperforming. It’s certainly not hard to imagine that a 5 game powerplay goal streak is unlikely to be a season long trend. However, the scoring rate of 28.6% is not much higher than the team’s 26.9% power play from last season. The first unit scored 6 power play goals during the road trip vs. and xGoals of 3.48. The second unit, meanwhile, failed to score while generating xGoals of 1.1. As the first unit comes off their hot streak, which we saw begin to happen vs. Vancouver, the second unit needs to be ready to step up.
Strong on the Penalty Kill
But special teams isn’t all about offense. In addition to the power play’s fantastic work, the penalty kill has arguably been even better. After starting just 6/9 (66.7%), they successfully killed off 20 of 21 penalties on the road trip. They were also better able to stay out of the box, averaging 4.5 penalties in the first 2 games vs. 3.5 on the road trip.
Of note, the only power play goal allowed on the trip was scored by a player named Connor McDavid. If you haven’t heard of him, he’s widely considered the best player currently in the NHL. When the penalty kill is operating well enough that only McDavid can score against it, there’s nothing to complain about.
The Hurricanes success while short handed came from preventing their opponent from even setting up their power play. The Hurricanes spent just over 40 minutes short handed on the road trip and allowed only 63 shot attempts during that time. That’s the equivalent of a Corsi For of 93.8 per 60 minutes (similar to the Hurricanes Corsi For vs. Seattle). While at 5 on 5, the Hurricanes averaged a Corsi For of 74.3 per 60 minutes. While on the power play, the Hurricanes Corsi For per 60 minutes was 120.5. Essentially, these numbers tell us that the Hurricanes had to be shorthanded for the other team to control possession as well as the Hurricanes do 5 on 5.
On top of being strong defensively, there was also a counter punch element to the penalty kill. Over the course of the road trip, the Hurricanes had four scoring chances while short handed. Three of those chances were high danger. Though they have yet to cash in on a short handed goal, I expect one soon (maybe even during this homestand).
Possession is 90% of the Game
Speaking of shot attempts, the Hurricanes were masterful during this road trip at driving play. Valuable possession can be estimated using a metric called Corsi, which is just the total count of shots attempted, including those that were blocked, missed the net, or were on goal. The last of those, shots on goal, is a more traditional metric that equals the total saves the goalie made plus the goals he allowed. Shots off the post are counted as misses.
The Hurricanes maintained a Corsi For % of over 60% during this trip (average CF% is always 50%). Their most dominant game in this metric was against Seattle, with a 73.2% CF%. Vancouver played the tightest, and the Canes had just a 50.5% CF%. Most of their possession success was in the later part of the first period, after the disallowed go-ahead goal for Vancouver. Vancouver did an excellent job in the second and third periods of suppressing shot attempts from the Canes. Though in the Hurricanes defense, teams tend to take fewer shots while leading by 2 goals.
Also of note is the relative expected goals metric. Over the course of the road trip, the Hurricanes xGF was 23.47 (3.9 per game), while the xGA was just 17.26 (2.9 per game). The Hurricanes actually scored 22 goals, very close to their xGF (93.7%) and primarily falling short vs. Edmonton (-1.55 of the -1.47 variance). However, they only allowed 13 goals, or 75.3% of the xGA, indicating strong play from the netminders. This was most noticeable against Pittsburgh (-2.75) and Edmonton (-2.15), when a certain Danish player was between the pipes.
Mr. Andersen and the Nyetminder
That certain Danish player is none other than Steady Freddie, The Great Dane, or, as Mike Maniscalco always calls him, Mr. Andersen. On the road trip, Andersen started three games (Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Seattle) and faced 80 shots (nearly 27 per game). He only allowed 4 goals (2 by Connor McDavid) for a 0.950 save percentage and a 1.30 GAA. He had an xGA of 9.62 and, therefore, a saves above expected of 5.62. I do not know how to properly convey how absolutely bonkers it is that his saves above expected is greater than his actual goals allowed. He gave up only 41.6% of the goals that a goalie would be expected to give up. Only Igor Shesterkin has been better on the road so far this season.
Kochetkov, meanwhile, has some room to improve. He rebounded nicely from a forgettable night in St. Louis with a solid showing against Calgary. In St. Louis, he allowed 4 goals on 19 shots for a 0.789 save percentage and 4.14 GAA vs. just a 1.67 xGA. Though 2 of the goals came from high danger chances, one was mid danger and another was low danger. A low danger save percentage of 0.857 is not going to cut it.
Against Calgary, he was much better, allowing just 2 goals on 32 shots against, good for a 0.938 save percentage. xGA was 3.44, leading to a much better 1.44 saves above expected. The Kochetkov we saw against Calgary is the one we need to see all season. That’s who we got in the first 2 periods against Vancouver, where he allowed just one goal on 17 shots (0.941 save percentage) and xGA of 1.46. But in the third period with mounting pressure from Vancouver, he tried to do too much and got beat. 2 goals against on 10 shots and xGA of 1.07. Not a total failure, but a situation where unnecessary risk should have been, but was not, avoided. Look for him to get back on track during this homestand, especially if Freddie misses any time.
Finally Back Home
On Halloween night, the Hurricanes kick off a four game homestand against the Boston Bruins, followed by visits from Washington, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. After five straight games against Western Conference opponents, it will be nice to face off against divisional opponents again.
All four of these games are winnable for the Hurricanes, as only the Capitals are currently above 0.500, and they’ll be in the second half of a back-to-back with travel. If Andersen is healthy, I expect him to get the start Sunday against the Capitals. But a string of starts for Kochetkov may just be what’s needed to kick his season into gear. Check back on game day for a more in depth analysis of each of these games.
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